Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha 2027: Moon Sighting Dates, Forecasts and the Science Behind Them

Planning ahead for the two greatest celebrations in the Islamic year requires a clear grasp of how the lunar calendar actually works. This article brings together astronomical forecasts, sighting criteria, and the reasons different communities may celebrate on different days, so that whether you follow a local crescent sighting or a pre-calculated calendar, you can prepare with confidence.

Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha 2027 at a Glance

Eid al-Fitr 2027 (1 Shawwal 1448) is Tuesday 9 March 2027 under the Umm al-Qura rule and Wednesday 10 March 2027 for communities that need a visible crescent, because no crescent can be seen on the evening of 8 March. Thursday 11 March 2027 is possible only if cloud or haze hides the otherwise easily visible crescent of the evening of 9 March. Eid al-Adha 2027 (10 Dhul-Hijjah 1448) is expected on Sunday 16 May 2027.

These dates are astronomical forecasts based on conjunction timing and established crescent visibility criteria. They are not official religious rulings. Any date in the table could shift by one day depending on the authority followed in your country.

When Is Eid al-Fitr 2027?

Eid al-Fitr marks the end of Ramadan and the first day of Shawwal. To understand why the forecast is Tuesday 9 March 2027 under Umm al-Qura and Wednesday 10 March 2027 for a visible-crescent count, it helps to trace the whole month from its beginning, which we forecast in detail in when does Ramadan 2027 start.

The Start of Ramadan 1448

The astronomical conjunction that begins the Shaban to Ramadan transition occurs on Saturday 6 February 2027 at about 15:56 UTC, after sunset across the Arab world and only a few hours before sunset in the Americas. No crescent can be seen anywhere on the evening of 6 February, so Shaban completes 30 days in most countries and the world enters Ramadan on Monday 8 February 2027. For communities whose Shaban began a day later, the crescent search falls on the evening of 7 February, when the Moon is about 19 to 30 hours old: an optical-aid target across much of the Arab world and Europe, a clear-sky naked-eye target in Morocco and West Africa, and out of reach in South and Southeast Asia.

The Shawwal Conjunction and Crescent Window

The conjunction marking the end of Ramadan 1448 occurs on Monday 8 March 2027 at approximately 09:30 Universal Time. That places the conjunction well before sunset at Mecca, but the Moon is still far too close to the Sun for any crescent to be seen in an inhabited region that evening; only the open North Pacific reaches the optical-aid zone. The Moon's age at sunset on 8 March ranges from about 2 to 13 hours depending on longitude (6 hours at Mecca), which falls below any recognised visibility threshold. Because the conjunction is before sunset at Mecca and the Moon sets 8 minutes after the Sun there, the Umm al-Qura rule is met, which makes 9 March 1 Shawwal in that calendar.

On the evening of Tuesday 9 March 2027 the picture changes dramatically. By the time the Sun sets across Asia, Africa, Europe and the Americas, the crescent will have grown to a width visible to the unaided eye under good atmospheric conditions across a large swathe of inhabited land. Visibility maps generated using the Yallop q-value criterion show the 9 March crescent reaching the easily visible band (Zone A) across Asia, Africa, Europe and the Americas, with thinner crescents in Southeast Asia (Zones C and D) and none yet visible in parts of the Southern Hemisphere such as Australia and New Zealand (Zone E).

Beyond the Umm al-Qura date of Tuesday 9 March, this gives rise to two realistic scenarios:

1. Communities that began Ramadan on 8 February and need a visible crescent cannot see one on the evening of 8 March, so they complete 30 days and celebrate Eid on Wednesday 10 March 2027 after sighting the crescent on the evening of 9 March. This is the most probable outcome for communities that rely on sighting or visibility criteria.

2. Communities that began Ramadan a day later, on 9 February, reach 29 Ramadan on 9 March and also celebrate Eid on Wednesday 10 March 2027 if they sight the crescent that evening. Thursday 11 March 2027 would follow only if cloud or haze hides the otherwise easily visible crescent of 9 March, a risk mainly in the United Kingdom, North America and parts of West Africa, where early-spring haze can hide even a Zone A crescent.

A point that bears emphasis: moon age at sunset is not the relevant criterion for visibility. A crescent can be 40 hours old and still invisible if the elongation is too small, the sky too bright, or the atmosphere too turbid. What determines visibility is the arc of vision (ARCV), the arc of light (ARCL), and the crescent width at the moment of observation. For a full explanation of these quantities and how they feed into visibility predictions, see our article on the science behind the crescent.

When Is Eid al-Adha 2027 and the Day of Arafah?

Eid al-Adha, the Festival of Sacrifice, falls on 10 Dhul-Hijjah every year. Its date is governed by the sighting of the Dhul-Hijjah crescent, which also sets the calendar for the Hajj pilgrimage.

1 Dhul-Hijjah 1448

The conjunction for Dhul-Hijjah 1448 is on Thursday 6 May 2027 at about 10:59 UTC, about five to eight hours before sunset in Arabia and North Africa and well over twelve hours before sunset in the Americas. The crescent of that evening cannot be seen from Africa, Asia or Europe and is an optical-aid target only from the western Americas and the Pacific. The Umm al-Qura calendar nevertheless starts the month on Friday 7 May 2027, because its rule (conjunction before sunset and the Moon setting after the Sun at Mecca) is met on 6 May. A community that waits for a crescent would see it on the evening of Friday 7 May and start the month on Saturday 8 May. We forecast 1 Dhul-Hijjah 1448 as Friday 7 May 2027 for Saudi Arabia and the countries that follow it. This means the count to Eid al-Adha runs as follows:

• 1 Dhul-Hijjah: Friday 7 May 2027
• 8 Dhul-Hijjah (Tarwiyah, day of departure to Mina): Friday 14 May 2027
• 9 Dhul-Hijjah (Day of Arafah): Saturday 15 May 2027
• 10 Dhul-Hijjah (Eid al-Adha): Sunday 16 May 2027

The Unique Role of Saudi Arabia for Eid al-Adha

Eid al-Adha carries a dimension that distinguishes it from Eid al-Fitr in a practically important way. The Hajj rites, including the standing at Arafah (wuquf), are performed at a single, fixed physical location outside Mecca. Muslim scholars widely hold that because the Day of Arafah is physically tethered to a place, its date is determined by the crescent sighted in Saudi Arabia, not by local sightings in each country.

In practice this means that a much larger share of Muslim communities worldwide synchronise with Saudi Arabia for Eid al-Adha than they do for Eid al-Fitr. For the majority of Muslims, Eid al-Adha 2027 will be Sunday 16 May 2027, provided Saudi Arabia starts Dhul-Hijjah on 7 May, as the Umm al-Qura calendar does. The crescent of 6 May cannot be seen from Africa, Asia or Europe (only with optical aid from the western Americas and the Pacific), so an announcement that day would rest on that rule rather than on a sighting; a count that waits for the crescent of 7 May starts the month on 8 May and reaches Eid on Monday 17 May.

The Day of Arafah (Saturday 15 May 2027) matters not only for pilgrims but also for the millions of non-pilgrims who fast that day. A miscalculation of even one day means fasting on the wrong day, which gives crescent-date accuracy a weight that goes well beyond administrative convenience.

Why the Dates May Differ in Your Country

If you have ever found yourself celebrating Eid on a different day from friends in another country, you are experiencing a centuries-old scholarly debate rather than a mistake by either party. There are three main reasons for national or community-level variation.

1. Differing Sighting Rules: Local vs Global

The central juristic question is whether each Muslim community must sight the crescent within its own borders (ikhtilaf al-matali, the principle of differing horizons) or whether a sighting anywhere on Earth suffices for the whole ummah (ittihad al-matali, the principle of unified horizons). The Shafi'i school is most consistently associated with the local-sighting position, while Hanafi, Maliki and Hanbali scholars generally leaned towards a wider scope, and many contemporary scholars and institutions have moved towards global sighting or calculation.

The cascade effect is significant: the further west a country sits, the later sunset occurs relative to the conjunction, so the Moon is older and higher and a sighting becomes more likely on the first eligible evening. Countries in the Americas are often better placed than countries in South and Southeast Asia, although higher latitudes and weather can offset this.

2. Naked-Eye vs Calculation

Some communities will not accept a date unless a physical crescent is seen by reliable witnesses. Others accept pre-calculated calendars validated by bodies such as the European Council for Fatwa and Research or the Fiqh Council of North America. Still others combine both, requiring calculation to confirm that sighting is astronomically possible before accepting witness testimony.

3. Different Reference Authorities

Each country typically defers to a national moon-sighting committee, a supreme court, or a religious ministry. Saudi Arabia's Supreme Court announcement carries the most global weight, particularly for Dhul-Hijjah. Turkey follows its Diyanet calculation. Morocco uses its own committee. South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States have multiple competing authorities within a single country.

For a deeper look at why these differences exist and how scholars have approached the debate, see our article on why Muslims start Ramadan on different days.

How These 2027 Forecasts Are Calculated

The forecasts in this article are not guesses. They rest on decades of mathematical work formalised by two landmark studies.

Conjunction vs Hilal

The first step is calculating the conjunction, the instant when the Moon's ecliptic longitude equals the Sun's. That moment is precise to within seconds using modern ephemerides (NASA's JPL DE series, for instance). The conjunction, however, is invisible. The challenge is predicting when the crescent first becomes detectable.

Yallop's q-Value (1997)

Bernard Yallop of HM Nautical Almanac Office published a criterion in 1997 that assigns each evening a single number, the q-value, derived from the crescent width (W) and the arc of vision (ARCV) computed for best-viewing latitude. The q-value sorts each sighting opportunity into one of six bands:

For the evening of 9 March 2027, the Shawwal crescent sits in band A or B across Asia, Africa, Europe and the Americas, confirming that a widespread naked-eye sighting is expected and that Eid on 10 March is well supported for communities that need a visible crescent.

Odeh's V-Value (2004)

Mohammad Odeh refined Yallop's work using 737 recorded crescent observations. His V-value criterion produces four outcome zones on a visibility map: easily visible, visible under good conditions, visible only with optical aid, and not visible. The colour bands that appear on Hilal Vision's interactive maps follow the Yallop zones A to F, with the Odeh V-value shown alongside, which allows you to see at a glance whether your city falls inside or outside the sighting window for any given evening.

To understand what sets the absolute physical lower bound on crescent visibility, see our article on the Danjon limit, which explains why no crescent can be seen below an elongation of roughly 7 degrees regardless of telescope aperture.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Eid al-Fitr 2027 on Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday?

It depends on the rule. Under the Umm al-Qura rule it is Tuesday 9 March 2027. For communities that need a visible crescent it is Wednesday 10 March 2027, because no crescent can be seen on the evening of 8 March and Ramadan completes 30 days from 8 February. The crescent of Shawwal 1448 is forecast to be easily visible across large parts of the world on the evening of Tuesday 9 March, making the next day, Wednesday, the first of Shawwal for them. Thursday 11 March 2027 is possible only if cloud or haze hides that otherwise easily visible crescent.

When is Eid al-Adha 2027?

Eid al-Adha 2027 is expected on Sunday 16 May 2027 (10 Dhul-Hijjah 1448). The Day of Arafah, the most important day of the Hajj pilgrimage and a recommended voluntary fast for those not performing Hajj, falls on Saturday 15 May 2027.

Why is the date not 100 per cent confirmed?

The Islamic lunar month begins only when the relevant crescent is actually sighted, or when a calculation-based authority confirms that sighting is astronomically valid. No astronomical forecast can account for local weather on the evening of observation, nor can it substitute for the authoritative announcement of whichever body your community follows. The dates given here are the most probable outcomes based on current conjunction data and the Yallop and Odeh criteria; they are not official religious rulings.

Will my country celebrate on the same day as Saudi Arabia?

For Eid al-Adha, the answer is usually yes. The majority of Muslim communities worldwide follow Saudi Arabia's crescent announcement for Dhul-Hijjah because the Hajj rites are physically tied to a place and date in Saudi Arabia, making a unified date the prevalent approach.

For Eid al-Fitr, the answer depends on local authority. Countries or communities that use their own moon-sighting committees, particularly those that insist on a local naked-eye sighting, may celebrate one day later than Saudi Arabia or one day later than calculation-based communities. In years where the crescent is only marginally visible, the gap between the earliest and latest celebrants can reach two days.

Can I use Hilal Vision to check the crescent for my city?

Yes. Hilal Vision's interactive visibility maps and city-level crescent data allow you to enter your location and see the Yallop and Odeh band predictions for any evening. Check the forecast for the evenings of 9 March 2027 (Shawwal) and 6 May 2027 (Dhul-Hijjah) as those dates approach for the most accurate local picture.

See Also

• Islamic Calendar 2027: Every Hijri Month and the Holidays of 1448 and 1449
• When Does Ramadan 2027 Start? Crescent Moon Forecast for 1448 AH
• Ramadan Dates 2027 to 2035: When Ramadan Begins and Ends Each Year
• Which Year Will Have Two Eid al-Fitr or Two Eid al-Adha?

References

• Yallop, B. D. (1997). A Method for Predicting the First Sighting of the New Crescent Moon. NAO Technical Note No. 69, HM Nautical Almanac Office.
• Odeh, M. Sh. (2004). New Criterion for Lunar Crescent Visibility. Experimental Astronomy, 18, 39 to 64.
• Danjon, A. (1936). Le croissant lunaire. L'Astronomie, 50.
• Moonsighting.com. Shawwal 1448 crescent data. https://moonsighting.com/1448shw.html
• AlHabib Global Islamic Calendar 2027. https://www.al-habib.info/islamic-calendar/global/global-islamic-calendar-year-2027-ce.htm
• Wego. Ramadan 2027 Guide. https://blog.wego.com/ramadan-2027/
• Islamic Crescents Observation Project (ICOP). https://astronomycenter.net/icop/

Clear skies and happy sighting.